New projections show ecommerce holiday sales growth remaining stable year over year in 2025, even as overall sales growth weakens.
The forecast, published by the consulting firm Deloitte, anticipates ecommerce sales during the 2025 holiday season increasing by 7% to 9% from online holiday sales results in 2024. If Deloitte analysts are correct, sales growth online will continue to outpace holiday retail sales overall, which they project will grow 2.9% to 3.4% year over year.
Those results would mean that holiday sales during the November 2025 to January 2026 time period total $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion, in line with earlier 2025 holiday sales predictions published by Salesforce.
2025 holiday sales projections
Deloitte’s 2025 holiday sales projections call for ecommerce sales alone to reach $305 billion to $310.7 billion from November to January. That would essentially maintain a level of growth similar to what was seen year over year in 2024. Last year, Deloitte observed 8.0% growth for ecommerce holiday spending of $285 billion.
Meanwhile, overall holiday retail sales growth of 2.9% to 3.4% would be substantially lower than the 4.2% year-over-year growth that Deloitte observed during the 2024 holiday season. Deloitte expects disposable income to play an important role in setting the stage for holiday shopping activity.
“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season,” said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights. “Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and ecommerce sales.”
What will drive holiday sales in 2025?
The upcoming holiday season and Cyber 5, the busiest shopping days of the year, which occur from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, will occur against the backdrop of a year characterized by uncertainty and supply chain shakeups amid trade disputes. Major retailers have raised prices due to tariffs, and consumers have noticed tariff-related price increases for items they purchase regularly.
“We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader at Deloitte. “Our forecast anticipates that ecommerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power.”
Martini expects retailers capable of “delivering value throughout the season” to be best positioned.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” said Barua. “While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season.”
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