Artificial intelligence is changing how people shop — and how retailers survive. A study from global management consulting firm Kearney finds that AI-powered “shopping agents” are beginning to take over purchasing decisions once made by humans.
The result, Kearney warns, will bring about big changes in how online retailers do business with consumers.
In its new report, Kearney says that “agentic commerce” — where AI systems anticipate needs, compare prices and execute purchases automatically — is moving rapidly from concept to reality. Six in 10 U.S. consumers expect to use AI shopping agents within the next year. And nearly three-quarters are already familiar with AI tools. The findings are based on two surveys of 750 consumers each, conducted in July and September.
“Agentic commerce stands to disintermediate shopping in a way we haven’t seen since the dawn of ecommerce,” said Katherine Black, a partner in Kearney’s Consumer and Retail practice and lead author of the report. “It’s no longer about having a chatbot or an app. The question is whether your brand even shows up in an AI agent’s decision-making process.”
How AI agents are disrupting ecommerce
Black described the shift as “a seismic change in who holds influence over purchasing decisions.” In the world of agentic commerce, she said, “algorithms — not shoppers — decide which products appear, in what order, and at what price. Retailers who spent decades cultivating brand loyalty must now cultivate algorithmic trust.”
The research reveals four distinct consumer groups driving adoption.
- About 15% are tech-forward early adopters who use AI to automate routine tasks and save time.
- 35% are price-sensitive pragmatists motivated by discounts and savings guarantees.
- Another 30% are privacy-conscious skeptics who will only adopt AI if they retain decision-making control and data transparency.
- The remaining 20% are routine loyalists who favor familiar brands and human interaction.
Despite those differences, Kearney found a consistent consumer desire to remain “smart shoppers” — wanting proof of savings, spending limits, and visible budget controls even when AI does the work.
The competitive dynamics are shifting just as fast. According to Kearney, the advantage increasingly lies with “super agents” such as ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Klarna and Instacart, which aggregate data and transact across multiple retailers.
“The real battle for your shopping cart isn’t Walmart versus Target,” Black said. “It’s OpenAI versus Google versus Klarna. These platforms are best positioned to deliver what consumers want most — speed, price, and trust.”
What drives consumers to use AI?
That trust is emerging as the single most important factor in consumer adoption, particularly in health care and beauty. More than 70% of respondents said they would trust AI agents to find lower-cost options for prescriptions or wellness products.
“Beauty is the canary in the coal mine,” Black added. “If AI can simplify skin care, it can easily move into nutrition, financial services, and health care. Once consumers get comfortable letting agents manage small purchases, bigger ones will follow.”
The financial implications for retailers are significant. Kearney’s modeling suggests potential earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) erosion of up to 500 basis points, stemming from price transparency, smaller orders, and agent platform fees. The firm estimates average selling prices could decline about 8%, fulfillment costs could rise 10%–15% due to smaller baskets and agent platforms could take roughly 4% per transaction.
At the same time, marketing dollars are expected to follow the agents.
“Retail media networks will lose traction as ad budgets migrate upstream to the platforms where AI agents control discovery,” Black said. “The new storefront isn’t your website or app — it’s the algorithm deciding what your customer sees first.”
To survive, Kearney advises retailers to become “agent-preferred” — the brands algorithms favor when completing purchases. That means structuring product data for machine readability, building open APIs for inventory visibility, maintaining transparent pricing, and ensuring reliable fulfillment.
“The next retail arms race won’t be for clicks or shelf space,” Black said. “It will be for algorithmic preference — being the brand an AI agent consistently selects.”
Kearney’s analysis paints agentic commerce as both an opportunity and a reckoning. Consumers will gain convenience and control, but retailers face shrinking margins and the risk of invisibility in the AI-driven marketplace.
“This world is arriving faster than most expect,” Black said. “If retailers don’t know how their brand performs when half their customers shop through AI, they’re already behind.”
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