A new wave of digital transformation is emerging that could redefine the way consumers shop, businesses sell, and value flows across the global economy. According to new research from management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, agentic commerce — a model in which artificial intelligence (AI) agents shop, negotiate and transact on behalf of humans — could generate as much as $1 trillion in orchestrated U.S. retail revenue by 2030, and as much as $3 trillion to $5 trillion globally.
McKinsey describes agentic commerce as a “seismic shift” that will transform shopping from a series of discrete steps — searching, browsing, comparing and buying — into a continuous, intent-driven flow powered by autonomous AI systems. These agents can anticipate consumer needs, evaluate options across multiple platforms, negotiate prices, and execute purchases, all while adhering to a user’s preferences and constraints.
“This is not just an evolution of ecommerce,” McKinsey’s analysis notes. “It’s a rethinking of shopping itself.”
The firm compares the potential impact of agentic commerce to that of the web and mobile revolutions. It argues that the transition could unfold even faster this time. Because these AI systems operate along the same digital pathways as human users, they can “ride the rails” of existing commerce infrastructure rather than waiting for new ones to be built.
McKinsey’s agentic commerce predictions
The implications extend far beyond online retail. McKinsey’s research suggests that brands, marketplaces, logistics providers and payment platforms will all have to adapt to a world in which AI agents — not consumers — initiate and complete most digital transactions.
This means rethinking everything from customer engagement and loyalty programs to pricing models and product discovery. In the agentic era, the consumer no longer travels alone. Their digital proxy navigates the entire ecosystem on their behalf.
Becca Coggins, a McKinsey senior partner and global leader for the firm’s retail and consumer packaged goods practices, described agentic commerce as a fundamental reconfiguration of the customer journey.
“Instead of users visiting a site or app,” she explained, “autonomous agents do the legwork — searching, filtering, comparing and even purchasing on behalf of the customer.”
From a technical standpoint, this transformation depends on a new class of integration standards and protocols. They will allow agents to interact, negotiate and transact safely and seamlessly. Among the frameworks gaining traction are:
- Model Context Protocol (MCP)
- Agent-to-Agent Protocol (A2A)
- Agent Payments Protocol (AP2)
- Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)
These systems enable communication and data sharing across multiple agents and platforms. McKinsey also points to the emergence of an “agentic AI mesh,” a software architecture designed to coordinate agent memory, orchestration, traceability, and governance at scale.
The challenges of agentic commerce
Yet the opportunities come with significant challenges. As AI systems act with greater autonomy, issues of trust, transparency, and control grow more urgent. McKinsey warns that agentic commerce will test existing frameworks for identity management, fraud prevention, and data privacy. Businesses will need new mechanisms to verify that agents act legitimately on behalf of authorized users, and to ensure accountability when autonomous systems make mistakes.
For many companies, this will require not only new technology but new business models. Marketplaces, loyalty platforms, and intermediaries that thrive on human-driven engagement may face existential questions: Should they build their own agents? Should they welcome or block agent-driven traffic? And how will they monetize when algorithms—not people—make the purchasing decisions?
McKinsey argues that early movers will have a decisive advantage. Companies that begin adapting their infrastructure today—creating “agent-ready” websites, composable commerce stacks, and transparent APIs — will be better positioned to capture the next phase of digital growth. Those that hesitate could find themselves bypassed as AI agents become the new gatekeepers of commerce.
“Agentic commerce flips the customer journey on its head,” McKinsey concluded. “You’re not just automating what you already do—you’re redesigning what shopping means.”
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